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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.